The Alumni Association of the University of Indonesia's Mathematics Department has made mathematical calculations regarding the peak of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak in Indonesia and when it might end. The calculations are contained in a document distributed via the official Instagram account of the UI Mathematics Department Alumni on Monday (March 30, 2020).
The document states that the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia will peak on April 16 and subside in May and June. Meanwhile, there will be an increase of around 546 new positive cases. However, this estimate will only be achieved if the government implements strategic policies by April 1. These policies must also be supported by public discipline in implementing physical distancing.
If strategic policies and public discipline are implemented by April 1, 2020, the accumulation of new positive cases will reach 17,000. The pandemic is expected to end in late May to early June 2020. However, if policies are less firm and strategic, coupled with a lack of public discipline, the spread of the outbreak will worsen. The worst-case scenario is that the pandemic will peak on May 2, with an additional 1,490 new cases.
If accumulated, the number of cases could reach 60,000, with the pandemic only ending in late June or July. The worst-case scenario would be if no firm policies were implemented by April 1, 2020. If that were to happen, the pandemic would peak on June 4, with 11,318 new cases. Accumulated, positive coronavirus cases would reach hundreds of thousands, with the pandemic only ending in late August or early September.
Judging from these three calculations, it can be concluded that government policy and public discipline are crucial. Based on the data, one person who tests positive for Covid-19 can infect 2-3 new people. This means the number of infected people could reach thousands. "This is why the implementation of... physical distancing "Discipline must be exercised, and residents in red zones should refrain from returning home to minimize the risk of widespread transmission to other areas that have not yet been affected," wrote the UI Mathematics Department Alumni. "This will significantly impact the accumulation of positive Covid-19 cases," they added.
As of Tuesday (March 31, 2020), the government has implemented Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBS). If this policy is implemented effectively, the first calculation will likely occur. The calculation for the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak was compiled by Barry Mikhael Cavin, Rahmat Al Kafi, Yoshua Yonatan Hamonangan, and Imanuel M. Rustijono through the UI Mathematics Department Alumni Association.
