The question that often arises in society at this time is when Indonesia will enter the endemic phase of Covid-19. As is known, there are certain parameters to determine the endemic phase of Covid-19 in the country.
sed on the World Health Organization (WHO) standard parameters, to enter the endemic phase of Covid-19, a country must meet the established requirements. Namely the level of transmission or reproduction number (Rt) below 1, bed capacity (bed occupancy rate/BOR) 8%, positivity rate 4% and completion of vaccination of 70% of the total population.
Research Lecturer in the Field of Epidemiological Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Indonesia (FMIPA UI), Dr. Dipo Aldila, M. Si. stated that the Indonesian government, in this case the Ministry of Health (Kemenkes), follows the parameters below the WHO standard.
"Of course, the Ministry of Health and epidemiologists have a basis or formulation that is in line with WHO. Then the data in the field is calibrated with a certain model. The difference in models will certainly provide different predictions," he explained as quoted from the Beritasatu.com page, Saturday (2/4/2022).
He explained that he did not know for sure how complex the Ministry of Health was involving what parameters. However, it is believed that this has been handled by experts in the government and of course many researchers are involved in when the endemic phase of Covid-19 can occur in Indonesia.
"I don't dare answer when it will happen because it depends on the intensity of the government in carrying out various preventive interventions, in this case related to vaccines booster. Then efforts to maintain health protocols," explained Dr. Dipo.
If all of that can be maintained, he believes the government's prediction of 3-6 months is not wrong. However, the problem is if people are careless about health protocols and others, because people's habits are not easily changed. That is what makes the prediction unpredictable again. So the endemic phase of Covid-19 cannot be determined yet.
"So I don't dare to say that the numbers are exactly like that. But if the government says numbers like that, I'm sure there is a basis for it with the assumption that what they predict in the future will not change drastically," he explained.
So there is no change in social and environmental factors that drastically change the essence of the model used to predict. If that does not happen, then it can be achieved in 3-6 months which the government claims should be achieved.
"We actually did the calculation with a certain model that is almost the same as the epidemiologists including from FKM UI regarding the requirements for the Covid-19 endemic phase a few months ago. But now it is not in-update again," he explained.
According to him, FMIPA UI has also conducted research that the reproduction number (Rt) is below 1 because it depends on time and was carried out when the government implemented large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) which were further tightened with other regulations.
"So it is true that the Rt is below 1 as stated by the government and epidemiologists, including the BOR measurement of 8% and the positivity rate of 4%," he said.
Potential Increase in Cases During Homecoming
Meanwhile, for the 2022 homecoming phenomenon, Dr. Dr. Dipo predicts that there is still the potential to increase the number of Covid-19 cases even though there have been vaccination achievements and the current type of virus. However, this is believed to not be too significant because many countries, including Indonesia, have claimed that the current Covid variant has lower and smaller symptoms and is no longer like before.
"So it could be that, later, the infected person is not aware so that the government cannot check that the person is positive," he said.
Covid-19 is one of the most easily mutated viruses and it is natural that since ancient times all organisms when they want to survive, they must spread. But the symptoms caused to infected people are not as severe as before.
"So it is possible that the cases in the field are not as significant as last year or the last 2 years because the government has asked those returning home to be vaccinated booster and antigen or PCR for those who have only had one or two doses to anticipate an increase in cases like the last 2 years," he concluded.
